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Introduction Solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment has grown rapidly in the United States over the past several years. As Figure 1 shows, in 2016 new U.S. PV installations included 2.3 gigawatts (GW) in the residential sector, 1.1 GW in the commercial sector, and 10.2 GW in the utility-scale sector— totaling 13.7 GW across all sectors (Bloomberg 2017). At the same time, PV system costs have continued to decline. Previous modeling (Fu et al. 2016) by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) shows system cost reductions of about 60%–80% across sectors between the fourth quarter of 2009 (Q4 2009) and Q1 2016.
This report continues tracking cost reductions by benchmarking costs of U.S. PV for residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems built in Q1 2017. It was produced in conjunction with several related research activities at NREL and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which are documented in Barbose and Darghouth (2016), Bolinger and Seel (2016), Chung et al. (2015), Feldman et al. (2015), and Fu et al. (2016). Our methodology includes bottom-up accounting for all system and project-development costs incurred when installing residential, commercial, and utility-scale systems, and it models the Q1 2017 costs for such systems excluding any previous supply agreements or contracts. In general, we attempt to model the typical installation techniques and business operations from an installedcost perspective, and our benchmarks are national averages of installed capacities, weighted by state. The residential benchmark is further averaged across installer and integrator business models, weighted by market share. All benchmarks assume non-union construction labor, although union labor cases are estimated for utility-scale systems.
Our modeled costs can be interpreted as the sales price an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor/developer might charge for a system before any developer fee or price gross-up. We use this approach owing to the wide variation in developer profits in all three sectors, where project pricing is highly dependent on region and project specifics such as local retail electricity rate structures, local rebate and incentive structures, competitive environment, and overall project or deal structures. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Section 2 describes our model inputs and sources. Sections 3, 4, and 5 show specific model inputs and outputs for the residential, commercial, and utility-scale PV sectors, including historical trends in system costs and the levelized costs of energy (LCOE). Section 6 includes three additional applications of our cost modeling: system cost reduction from economies of scale, module efficiency impacts, and regional LCOEs. Finally, Section 7 puts the results in context with each other and offers conclusions
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